Talk:LessWrong

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Origin of the term "p(doom)"

Latest comment: 18 days ago8 comments4 people in discussion

I'd like to restore a one-sentence mention that the term "p(doom)" originated on LessWrong, in a 2009 comment by Tim Tyler: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2KNN9WPcyto7QH9pi/this-failing-earth?commentId=nvA3JjbaMa7YGrM7J

The New York Times (December 2023) also describes the term as coming out of this community: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/06/business/dealbook/silicon-valley-artificial-intelligence.html

P(doom) has become one of the best-known terms to come out of the forum and is now widely used in mainstream AI discussion, so it seems relevant to the article.

@Slatersteven: could you explain your concern? I'm happy to change the wording or placement. ~2026-55160-89 (talk) 07:00, 15 October 2026 (UTC)Reply

Has it, I am unsure; this is not wp:undue. Slatersteven (talk) 09:46, 15 October 2026 (UTC)Reply

I think it needs to be established that (p)doom is a notable concept.Simonm223 (talk) 12:06, 15 October 2026 (UTC)Reply

It's article here is a bit sparse and seems mainly to be a list of values associated with coding. Slatersteven (talk) 12:09, 15 October 2026 (UTC)Reply

A lot of questionable citations. Twitter. LessWrong. A wiki of some sort. Simonm223 (talk) 13:39, 15 October 2026 (UTC)Reply

Fair points. One reason I think it fits: the section already notes that "Articles posted on LessWrong about AI have been cited in the news media." P(doom) is probably the most visible example of that - a term that came out of LessWrong/the rationalist community and is now used in mainstream coverage. ~2026-55160-89 (talk) 13:59, 15 October 2026 (UTC)Reply

The NYT article is a good source but it also expresses uncertainty, so I think a Wikipedia sentence would have to mirror that uncertainty unless there is a later reliable source that confirms that it comes from LessWrong. Alenoach (talk) 16:46, 15 October 2026 (UTC)Reply

Thanks, that makes sense. There is a secondary source that attributes the term directly: the open textbook "The Future Is Now" (Milne Open Textbooks, SUNY Geneseo), chapter "Safeguarding Humanity in the Age of AI". It quotes Tim Tyler's 2009 LessWrong comment on Eliezer Yudkowsky's post and says that "in this one post, the concept of the 'probability of doom' or p(doom) took on a life of its own": https://milnepublishing.geneseo.edu/future-is-now/chapter/safeguarding-humanity-in-the-age-of-ai/

Combined with the NYT, would wording like this be acceptable for the LessWrong article: "The term "p(doom)" has been traced to a 2009 comment by Tim Tyler on LessWrong." ~2026-55160-89 (talk) 18:50, 15 October 2026 (UTC)Reply